Views of Teachers
and Teaching...
Teachers are not just here to do this job in the classroom to do a job that is prescribed for them. They're here to be professionals in which they participate in the business of trying to work out what is best for the school, what is best for the kids and how education should be practiced.
Dr David Frost, Cambridge University (8/05/2006)

Creativity and Innovation
in Education
Moving beyond best practice ...
Teachers are implementers of policy reforms and initiatives determined beyond the classroom.

Innovation and creativity doesnt have to be a lessening of standards.

Need to bring together a range of professional knowledges in partnerships where all are seen to be equal.
Innovation requires a risk-analysis and discipline.

Schools need to be at an acceptable level before the freedom to innovate.
Test things out not just pilot, and learn from trying things out on behalf of the profession.
Management of scope of innovation

Prioritising areas needing attention
Network ideas

Network people

Networked learning to build professional knowledge (innovation, creativity, quality)
Questions to assist in thinking about next practice:
1.What is the nature of the problem and practice?
2.What is happening in this area?
3.Where are the sites of good practice?
4.How can ideas and people be connected to generate ideas and develop practice?
5.Will this work in other classrooms?
6.What can be put into practice?
7.Closely monitored, evidence-based.
Developing a learning orientation within teaching as a profession and across education systems;
Building teacher capacity to problem identify, problem solve, analyse and research from within the context of their classrooms;
Building professional knowledge;
Developing next practice;
Laterally transferring new professional knowledge to other sites and teachers so that it becomes new professional practice;
and identifying and developing the most creative, innovative and ingenious teachers.
 
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Some of the Factors That Make Our Jobs More Challenging:
________________________________________________________________

Helicopter parents who demand (sometimes in writing!) that their
child never be reprimanded or corrected.

Language and cultural differences that force teachers to walk
thinner tightropes.

Legal risks that have led some teachers to take out liability
insurance.

Crowded classroom and shrinking budgets.

A dwindling support system that we once enjoyed as kids that is
no longer available in many neighborhoods.

Video games and technical gadgets that shrivel our kids
attention spans.

The rise of disorders such as ADHD.

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How is the money paid in section 21 schools?

Section 21 schools are those schools that manage their own finances. The Department deposits the school allocation into the schools' account at the beginning of every financial year. This happens after the school has submitted an audited annual financial statement report. The Department manages the finances of the non-section 21 schools and they order what the schools require and the Department pays the suppliers. These financial allocations are known as school allocations and all schools are informed of their school allocations six months before the beginning of the financial year to enable schools to budget and plan for the next financial year.

What happens if a parent can afford to pay school fees but has a child that goes to a no fee school?

Parents who can afford to pay school fees are encouraged to do so.

What if there is no No Fee School and a parent cannot afford to pay school fees?

No child should be denied access to education because of the financial status of his/her parents. Parents can apply to the school governing body for total, partial or conditional exemption if they are unable to pay school fees. The criteria used for this exemption is determined by the school governing body and parents. It is therefore very important for parents to attend school meetings at all times as these critical decisions are made at parents' meetings.

How do you know if a school is a No Fee School?

The Department will publish a No Fee School newspaper supplement which will contain a list of No Fee schools. Parents can also contact the Call Centre on 0860 596 363 or the Toll-Free 0800 204 353 to verify the status of a school. The Department has an unambiguous policy on how admission of learners should be administered. The policy begins from a premise that: Every child has a right to be admitted to any public school and to participate in all school activities.

When should children start school?

For grade R learners the admission age of a learner to a public school is 4 turning 5 by 30 June in the year of admission and for a grade 1 learners the admission age is 5 years turning 6 by 30 June in the year of admission. It is the responsibility of every parent to ensure that children are registered between August and November in the year before they start school, that all children between the ages of 6 and 15 attend school and that all children attend school regularly.

What is needed to register a child at a public school?

A certified or original copy of the child's birth certificate, immunisation card, transfer card or last school report for learners who have been to school are required to register a child at a public school.

Can a child be refused admission at a public school?

Chapter 2 (3) a - c ; of the South African Schools Act NO. 84 OF 1996 states:
No learner may be refused admission to a public school on the grounds that his or her parent-
(a) is unable to pay or has not paid the school fees determined by the governing body under section 39;
(b) does not subscribe to the mission statement of the school; or
(c) has refused to enter into a contract in terms of which the parent waives any claim for damages arising out of the education of the learner. Subject to this Act and any applicable provincial law, the admission policy of a public school is determined by the governing body of such school. Any learner or parent of a learner who feels they have been unfairly discriminated during the consideration of their application they may appeal against the decision to the Member of the Executive Council.

Where should a child who has been refused admission on the basis of age go?

For example, a child who is 16 years old who wants to do basic education.

Section 3 of the South African Schools Act, provides for compulsory attendance of learners at school between the ages of 7 and 15 or the completion of Gr 9, whichever comes first. A learner who is 16 years of age or older who has never attended school and is seeking admission for the first time or who did not make sufficient progress with his/her peer group is advised to enroll at an Adult Basic Education and Training (ABET) centre.

What should parents do to avoid last minute registration problems?

Parents must register their children between August and November of the year before they start school to ensure that the first day of school is devoted to teaching and learning. Moreover, it is important for parents to note that the Department will not allow schools to over enroll. If a school has reached its maximum enrollment number, parents can approach their nearest Department of Education Circuit Offices for advice on the other nearest schools that can still accommodate their children. Parents can also obtain a letter from the school which certifies that the school has reached its capacity in terms of admission numbers.

Is it important to enroll a child for Grade R?

Yes, Early Childhood Education assists children in becoming better learners. They learn through play while having fun with their peers, however, attendance to grade R is not compulsory.

What if a parent cannot afford to buy school uniform?

No child may be refused admission to a school because of an inability to obtain or wear the school uniform. Schools, through their School Governing Bodies, should make an effort to assist learners who are unable to afford a school uniform. The establishment of second-hand shops, run by schools, is therefore strongly encouraged. Schools, through their governing bodies, should develop an assistance plan that takes into account the financial means of the school and its wider community.

Examples of possible types of assistance include:
(a) the school, where feasible, provides new or second hand uniforms to learners whose parents cannot afford to purchase them;
(b) community organisations or businesses provide uniforms or contribute financial support for uniforms as part of a structured donor programme;
(c) parents work together to make uniforms available to indigent learners;
(d) second-hand uniforms donated by out-going learners are made available to incoming pupils on a charitable basis; and
(e) grants secured from a local foundation or bequests from deceased estates could cover the cost of uniforms for families that cannot afford to buy them.

What happens if a parent cannot afford to pay school fees?

School fees may be determined and charged at a public school only if a resolution to do so has been adopted by a majority of parents attending the meeting. Parents can apply to the school governing body for total, partial or conditional exemption if they are unable to pay school fees. The criteria used for this exemption is determined by the school governing body and parents. It is therefore very important for parents to attend school meetings at all times as these critical decisions are made at parents' meetings.

Parents who can afford to pay school fees are liable to pay the school fees. The school governing body of a public school may by process of law enforce the payment of fees to liable parents. Should a parent encounter financial problems anytime during the school year they must inform the school principal and the governing body well in advance so that an amicable solution can be sought.

What is the procedure for suspending a child at a public school?

The governing body of a public school may, after a fair hearing, suspend a learner from attending the school as a correctional measure for a period not longer than a week or in consultation with the Head of Department, pending a decision as to whether the learner is to be expelled from the school by the Head of Department.

Can a child be expelled from school because she is pregnant?

No. Section 9"(3) of the Constitution, entitled "Equality", states that: The state may not unfairly discriminate directly or indirectly against anyone on one or more grounds, including race, gender, sex, pregnancy, marital status, ethnic or social origin, colour, sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, conscience, belief, culture, language and birth."

Can a school withhold results or refuse a child access to school because of outstanding school fees?

No. No learner can be denied admission or otherwise discriminated against on grounds of the parent's inability or failure to pay school fees.

Where can one apply for a copy of a matric certificate?

At the exam section of the Provincial Department of Education on (031) 327 0467 or 72 Stalwart Simelane Street, 8th Floor, Durban.
 
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More time for learning and teaching
THABO MOHLALA | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - May 28 2010 15:43

New director general of basic education Bobby Soobrayan recently presented a turnaround plan for South Africa's schools. In his first major interview since his appointment, he told Thabo Mohala more

Is OBE in or out: will it be revised or discarded?
It is important to understand that through the curriculum reform process we are not changing the vision of the curriculum transformation process that started after 1994, but we are implementing changes in order to strengthen curriculum implementation.

The minister has acted on the main recommendations by [last year's] ministerial committee report, and their major focus is to relieve teachers and schools of some of the challenges experienced as a result of the current curriculum and assessment policies, and leave more time for teaching and learning. The report also recommends targeted support for teachers and schools.

Three committees have been appointed and work has already begun on a single curriculum and assessment policy, on reducing the number of learning areas [subjects], and on learning and teaching support materials.

South African learners perform disgracefully in international as well as regional numeracy and literacy tests. How are you going to improve learner performance?
The department has undertaken a number of programmes that focus on improving learners' literacy and numeracy skills. In particular, we are focusing on the foundation phase and through the Foundations for Learning Programme, we have distributed learning and teaching packs for all grade R teachers.

We will make available exemplar question papers to assist teachers with their preparations for the national assessments and we are distributing lesson plans in literacy and numeracy for grades one to six to teachers.

During 2010, the distribution of workbooks for grades R to six will focus on literacy and numeracy. The use of these workbooks will focus largely on preparing learners in grades R to six for the annual national assessments.

We have decided that performance at grades three, six and nine will be improved from the current average attainment level of between 27% and 38% to at least 60% by 2014. The assessments will be conducted in November each year so that the results are available at the beginning of the following school year to inform teaching and teacher support programmes.

Some feel it is high time the department kicked ass in dealing with teacher underperformance. Would you agree?
Teacher performance is critical to quality education and learner achievement. A significant intervention is the establishment of the national education evaluation and development unit (Needu) this year. It will be a professional facility dedicated to purposes of monitoring, evaluation and support. Needu will play a part in identifying weaknesses in terms of teacher performance, but this will be linked to a focused teacher development strategy. The unit will report directly to the minister and will function independently of the department.

A key deliverable in June 2010 will be the National Teacher Development Plan emanating from the multi-stakeholder working groups established after the National Teacher Development Summit held in June 2009. This detailed plan will focus on teacher development over the next five years and the longer-term plan is to ensure a sustainable teacher development system.

How will Needu materially differ from its predecessors regarding whole school evaluation? Aren't you reinventing the wheel?
Needu will function independently. We shall request Needu to advise us but we cannot prescribe to the unit.

What will you do to address the dismal matric pass rates recorded in 2008 and 2009?
Underperforming and poorly performing schools have been identified and provincial departments are working closely with those schools to ensure that they have turnaround strategies in place. Schools have been charged with the responsibility of holding holiday and extra classes. The department is supporting schools through the publication of study guides and past examination papers to ensure that learners are prepared through directed revision.

In the 2008 matric exam, many learners achieved good maths marks but then couldn't handle university and dropped out. What will you do to ensure an adequate standard in maths?
The minister has set up a committee whose primary task is to develop a single and comprehensive curriculum assessment policy statement of each grade. This should provide clear guidelines on what teachers ought to teach and assess on a grade-by-grade and learning-areas basis or subject basis.

Some say the South African Democratic Teachers' Union abuses its numerical strength to disrupt learning and teaching Are you going to rein them in?
All teacher unions have committed themselves to a social contract for achieving quality learning and teaching. The unions led the way in committing themselves to a code of conduct as part of the Quality Learning and Teaching Campaign. They are working closely with us to ensure that we uphold the non-negotiables in education, as identified by President Jacob Zuma, that teachers must be in class, on time and teaching; that parents must support their children and their teachers; and that departmental officials must support teachers and schools.

You sent in a crack team to sort out the administration of the matric exam in Mpumalanga, where 60 provincial exam officials are now getting paid to do nothing. What are you doing to do to avoid a further waste of taxpayers' money?
The department is working closely with the Mpumalanga education department to ensure that the problems that have been experienced over the past years will not recur. The provincial education department is responsible for the redeployment of officials in the province.

There is a perception that you are centralising power -- the deployment of teams to Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape in past years being examples. Can we expect more such steps in provinces that perform badly?
It is the responsibility of the national department to assist provinces that are struggling to deal with specific challenges. And the National Education Policy Act compels the minister and the department to monitor and report on the implementation of education policies as well as the progress of the system and to intervene where necessary.
 
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Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010

$1 trillion wasted on wars

By KEVIN RAFFERTY
Special to The Japan Times
HONG KONG — The calculator busily counting out how much money the United States has spent on wars since 2001 has raced past $1 trillion — $1,024 billion plus at the start of August. There is little point in trying to give a more refined figure since the clock ticks remorselessly on, mesmerizingly faster than you can write the sum down, about $260,000 blown away in each passing minute.*

Meanwhile, the wars are being lost rather than won, U.S. and allied soldiers are dying and being maimed every day, tens and sometimes hundreds of innocent civilians are killed daily, and billions of dollars are being wasted and millions of lives being destroyed for no good reason apart from the overweening egos of politicians who are not prepared to admit that they are wrong.
The grim bottom line is that American military and foreign policy is bust and the greatest imperial power the world has ever known is failing. U.S. President Barack Obama promised to be different, but he has become trapped as a gear-lever in the same broken machine.
Release of 92,000 Afghan war documents by WikiLeaks highlighted America's plight, even though the documents mostly confirmed things already known: The war is not going as well as Washington pretends; soldiers are killing more civilians than they admit; the Taliban possess surface to air missiles; Afghan security forces on whom Washington has lavished so much money are no match for the Taliban; and efforts to defeat the Taliban are being undermined by Pakistani intelligence providing information, money and arms to the insurgents.
The White House complained that the leaks could give aid and comfort to the enemy. However, former general and head of Pakistan's intelligence agency Hamid Gul claimed that the release of the documents was part of a devious plot by Obama to cut his losses and retire, defeated, from Afghanistan. Gul claims that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is a "war against Muslims."
It is not just a question of money going down the drain, though at a time of economic hardship, governments are irresponsible being so profligate. A trillion dollars could pay for gasoline for all American drivers for more than two years, or give every household two state- of-the-art 73-inch televisions, or buy 5.5 million typical American homes or 40.8 million new Volkswagens.
More to the point, a trillion dollars would pay for the Afghan budget for 303 years or give every Afghan, man, woman and child $35,000 each, or provide enough money for each Afghan to live at present low levels of income for 77 years — or only 44 years adjusted for purchasing power parity.
Last month saw former U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix giving evidence in London declaring that Saddam Hussein's Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, that the invasion of Iraq was illegal and that President George W. Bush and his advisers were "high on military" and "they felt that they could get away with it, and therefore it was desirable." If only Blix had had the courage to say that back in 2003.
South Korea and the U.S. have also been playing war games and taunting their military might in front of North Korea, to the concern of Beijing. Behind the scenes Washington has been trying to make sanctions against Iran, North Korea and other rogue states effective.
The lesson that it seems impossible for Washington and the West to accept is that weapons and war rarely settle anything. Hosts of thinkers and advocates of peace from Jesuit antinuclear campaigner Father John Dear, Martin Luther King Junior and Mohandas Gandhi to Jesus Christ have made the point down the centuries.
Eight years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan have left at least 910,000 people dead, or more than 303 times those killed in the 9/11 al-Qaida attacks on the U.S., created a fragile and corrupt Iraq and a still failing Afghanistan, which will fall into the hands of the Taliban soon after the U.S. leaves.
The U.S. is also failing in its peaceful diplomatic attempts to pressure rogue states to behave properly. North Korea, Iran and Myanmar, to mention only the Asian three, continue to thumb their noses at Washington. Few experts expect new sanctions against Iran to have much impact on Tehran's nuclear ambitions and they may allow the Ahmedinejad government to blame and suppress opponents for any hardships that ordinary Iranians suffer. India, the heralded world's largest democracy, played host to Myanmar's Gen. Than Shwe just before it welcomed the United Kingdom's David Cameron, and allowed the dictator to play his game of playing India against China and both against the West.
It is unfair to blame Washington or the West alone for the failure to create a more civilized and safer world. All politicians, especially China's, cynically think short-term advantage without a care for the fate of the world. Beijing is a prime backer of and supplier of aid and weapons to Pakistan. China is also an ambivalent supporter of the latest sanctions against Iran. "We can no longer be friends, but we are still friendly to Iran," as one Chinese official put it.
And as for North Korea, Beijing's pussyfooting, whether out of cynicism or loyalty to communist comrades or fears that the country will crumble, has made a mockery of sanctions and encouraged Pyongyang to seek potentially explosive stronger ties with Iran and Myanmar.
There is no easy way out. When he was on the campaign trail, Obama promised to be different and to cut through old shibboleths and seek new engagement with friends and enemies. Is it too late for the old Obama to be reinvigorated?
Even so, that will not be enough. Asian allies are needed to convince China to take a longer and more farsighted view that can see that we all live together on this fragile Earth and that the prosperity and well-being of us all is bound up with the prosperity of the poorest inhabitant.
Once upon a time, some of us had high hopes that Japan, with its unique experience as a once imperial power that had suffered from nuclear weapons, might show the way to a saner more pacific world. But alas, Japan's politicians live in their own make-believe world, denying the atrocities of the past and refusing to face the perils of the future.
Kevin Rafferty is editor in chief of PlainWords Media, a consortium of journalists dedicated to issues of global economic development. *Instant calculations at costofwar.com. These are direct costs only; indirect costs will probably double any figure.
 
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China's irresistible power surge
Rowan Callick, Asia-Pacific Editor From: The Australian October 04, 2010 12:00AM


AFTER countless "dragon rising" conferences and speeches, Australians have grown accustomed to China's emergence as an economic giant to rival the US.

But the past few weeks have seen something new: the most important shift so far in the 21st century. History in the making. China has made its move.

In August it leapfrogged Japan as the world's second biggest economy. And it has started to make that strength tell, beyond the worlds of factories, foreign exchange and trade, which it has already ruled for a decade.

During the past few years, Beijing has talked of projecting its soft power, its cultural influence. But that was either a feint or was destined to be a flop.

Instead, China is now exercising its influence in the world of hard power, where it makes other countries behave in the way it wants -- and this is especially apparent in the seas surrounding China's 14,500km coastline.

These are the waters through which more than half of Australia's traded goods have to sail. And Australia is the Western country most enmeshed economically and socially with China. There is thus no strategic issue of greater weight for Canberra.

In the past few days, the US House of Representatives has voted overwhelmingly for legislation approving sanctions against China, which Americans criticise for subsidising its exports by keeping the value of its currency low by buying large amounts of foreign currency, chiefly US dollars.

Influential US economist Paul Krugman says these subsidised exports are hurting employment in the rest of the world. But not in Asia, where many of China's trading partners enjoy large surpluses in their China trade, thanks to the products they send for assembly there. Australia's dollar is riding high in part because of the strength of our trade with China.

The US is in no position to launch, let alone win, a trade war with China. US rhetoric about currency valuations instead underlines its economic impotence.

Two Chinese thrusts underline the country's role as a great power in Asia and, more significantly, its willingness to exercise its strength.

The first move: North Korea sank a South Korean corvette killing 46 sailors; the US and its Korean ally responded by planning a military exercise, involving the aircraft carrier George Washington, in the Yellow Sea between the Korean Peninsula and China.

China refrained from publicly rebuking Pyongyang and issued an emphatic warning to Washington and Seoul that this would be perceived as an attack on its sovereignty. The allies took a step back, and instead exercised off the Sea of Japan to the east of the peninsula.

The second move involved the ramming by a Chinese trawler of two Japanese gunboats in the oil and gas rich waters near Japan's Diaoyu islands, which are claimed by China. The Chinese skipper, Zhan Qixiong, was arrested.

China retaliated by banning exchanges with Japan, cancelling all cabinet-level contact with Japan, instructing travel agents to stop offering tours to Japan, and suspending negotiations to increase airline flights. "If Japan clings to its mistake, China will take further actions and the Japanese side shall bear all the consequences that arise," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in New York.

A week ago, Japan released the skipper unconditionally and China sent a plane to bring him back. The national CCTV news featured skipper Zhan's welcome with bouquets, hugs from his family, and massed media attention.

This wasn't the end of the affair. China went on to demand an apology and compensation from Tokyo. A foreign ministry statement said, after Zhan's safe return: "This was an action that gravely violated Chinese sovereignty and the human rights of a Chinese citizen."

China is steadily building a huge naval force, with a focus on modern, fast, quiet submarines, many berthed in underground pens at a base on Hainan Island south of Hong Kong, with direct access to the South China Sea.

The global financial crisis has triggered a shift in the balance of economic power. And while there is growing debate over how the West can and should respond to China's strength, there is agreement that the levers for all other forms of power are ultimately pulled by the economy.

A leading Australian expert on Asia, economist Peter Drysdale, stresses that "economic size matters to political heft" -- a fact that can be overlooked in the US, many of whose leading commentators on foreign affairs tend to leave economics outside their analyses.

Ross Garnaut said in a recent speech on China as a great power: "China will be the world's largest economy when its people on average are about one quarter as economically productive as the people of the US", because it has four times the population.

Many economists are tipping this to happen some time between 2020 and 2030. Garnaut says it is hard to imagine the Chinese remaining for long less than a quarter as productive as Americans. In the meantime, the US has been stressing to China's concerned neighbours that it is not about to pull out of Asia.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has backed the Southeast Asian nations' desire for territorial disputes in the South China Sea -- which is rich in oil and gas, as well as a key shipping channel -- to be resolved through ASEAN.

China's news agency Xinhua responded that "superpowers often adopt the strategy of divide and rule" via such solutions. Beijing prefers to negotiate with its smaller neighbours one by one.

Influential Chinese commentators have been promoting Australia as a sympathetic mediator. China Daily noted approvingly that then foreign minister Stephen Smith called for tensions in the sea to be resolved bilaterally.

The newspaper said the Gillard government was thus "seen as siding with China on the South China Sea issue, which the US has wanted to internationalise".

Shen Dingli, at Fudan University in Shanghai, wrote in a commentary for the Lowy Institute: "Like many powers before it, China's growing maritime interests overlap with those of others. By differing from America, which meddles directly, Canberra receives more respect in the region."

A fortnight ago, Australian frigate HMAS Warramunga participated in Chinese exercises in the Yellow Sea, from which the George Washington carrier was excluded.

The Chinese ambassador to Canberra, Zhang Junsai, told The Australian on the eve of his departure that Australia is emerging as an exemplar for China's fast-changing relations with the West and the Asia-Pacific region, "a testing ground in areas where we are playing an increasing role".

Recently, China has conducted extensive exercises in the South China Sea, where it has arrested hundreds of Vietnamese fishermen for fishing in disputed waters.

Indonesian analyst Dewi Fortuna Anwar says the "increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Beijing sends rather unwelcome news to the rest of the region".

Including to Singapore, where these issues are playing strongly. Ambassador-at-large Tommy Koh has written a new book, Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post-Crisis Divide from America.

Singaporean academic Evelyn Goh says the key question is "whether Asians are willing either to shift into a Chinese sphere of influence, or to facilitate a highly complex negotiated power sharing arrangement between the US, China, Japan and the region".

China is now the biggest economic partner of all its Asian neighbours. As Bill Clinton famously stressed: "It's the economy, stupid." And the US looks unlikely to regain economic dominance.

Japan's Economics Minister Banri Kaieda said shortly before the release of Zhan: "The Japanese economy's future performance seems to depend on whether the problem is solved quickly."

Japan's trade with China reached $156 billion in the first half of 2010, up an extraordinary 34.5 per cent from 2009. Thirty per cent of Japanese firms' manufacturing output is produced in China.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has warned that "we are now seeing the rise of a new great power. A growing China will pursue its interests globally: that is natural. [But] history is not overburdened with examples of how such transitions in geopolitical and geo-economic realities have been accommodated peacefully. We need a new way forward."

Andrew Davies, director of operations at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, wrote of the Rudd government's 2009 defence white paper: "We come to the uncomfortable conclusion that our major ally and our major trading partner are, at some level, getting ready to fight one another."

Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, who drafted much of the Howard government's defence white paper of 2000, has stirred up a furious response to his new Quarterly Essay, Power Shift -- Australia's Future Between Washington and Beijing, because of his prescription that Australia should persuade the US to accommodate China's ambitions, and should convince China to join a "concert of nations", including India and Japan, to guide Asia's future.

The core of his essay lies in the less contestable analysis that China's economic surge will form the basis for a great rise in its strategic power. When China becomes the world's richest country, "that will make it too strong to live under American leadership in Asia".

China, White writes, is "already bigger, relative to the US, than the Soviet Union ever was during the Cold War", although one difference is that China has boomed because of its international economic enmeshment, becoming a champion of globalisation.

White says that "if China's power displaced America's primacy, we will have to start thinking about our place in the world all over again", even though "it is easy to hope that, like climate change, the issue will just go away".

He says Asia is "a maritime theatre". But the Western Pacific "is likely to become a kind of naval no-go zone in coming decades", paralleling the economic "balance of terror" between the US and China, with neither wishing to push the other too far.

American analyst Robert Kaplan says while the US and other nations consider the South China Sea an international waterway, China considers it a core interest.

He expresses concern about the US being distracted by Afghanistan and the Middle East as China builds an economic empire based on a far-flung trading network ultimately protected by its warships: "the British Empire refitted for a 21st-century era of globalisation".

White says: "If we plan to get rich on China's growth, we had better get used to the idea of it as a very powerful state."

It is also a more predictable state than most rising powers.

Despite its often opaque governance, it is no longer ruled by charismatic visionaries but by committee men who almost chronically covet consensus.

One of China's nationalist thinkers, Wang Xiaodong, says that while China's present leaders are essentially administrators, when today's students eventually succeed them, "China will globalise its national interests, and this will affect not just our close neighbours but the whole world. It must gain the capacity to protect those interests."

Paul Monk, co-founder of Austhink Consulting and former head of China analysis for the Defence Intelligence Organisation, in a recent speech cited Lee Kuan Yew's description of Deng's resurgent China:

"This is not just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of man."

Monk defines this in security terms: "The danger is less one of a large-scale military threat than of the gradual constriction of our freedom to operate in the manner to which Anglo-American naval primacy has long accustomed us."

He concludes: "The challenges we faced from Japan in the early 1940s and the Soviet Union during the Cold War were simple by comparison."
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